For the third time in the past five years, the SEC Media has collectively predicted Alabama and Georgia to meet in the conference championship game. That was also the pick in 2013, when neither team held up their end of the bargain [Auburn and Missouri made it to Atlanta], and in 2015, when Alabama won the West but Florida knocked off Georgia to take the East division title.
Surprisingly, prior to 2013 the SEC Media hadn’t predicted an Alabama/Georgia matchup in the conference title game a single time this century. [And, to the media’s credit, the two teams didn’t hook up in Atlanta until their classic, down-to-the-wire battle in 2012.]
So, did the media get it right this time? History suggests the answer is…probably not. Since 2000, the media has nailed the championship game matchup just once—when super-powers Alabama and Florida squared off in 2009. And in the 25 years since the SEC went to divisional play, the media has correctly predicted the overall league champion only six times. Not exactly a great track record.
But Nick Saban and his Crimson machine are in The Process of making things much easier in the prediction business. The media correctly picked Alabama to win the SEC title in 2014 and 2016, and the Tide were an overwhelming choice last week in Hoover to win it again, receiving 217 out of a possible 243 points in the voting for conference champion.
Now that the 2017 picks are on the record, we’ll tell you whether we agree or disagree with the media’s predicted order of finish for each division, starting today with the SEC West.
Alabama (1st in media polling with 1,683 points)
FFP: Agree
A few weeks ago in this space, we highlighted the growing gap between the Tide—winners of three straight league titles and 17 consecutive games in conference play—and the rest of the SEC. Of Alabama’s first 22 players (11 starters on offense and 11 on defense), 15 received preseason All-Conference honors from the media last week. Nine of those (quarterback Jalen Hurts, receiver Calvin Ridley, linemen Jonah Williams and Ross Pierschbacher on offense; corner Minkah Fitzpatrick, safety Ronnie Harrison, linebacker Rashaan Evans, linemen Da’Shawn Hand and Da’Ron Payne on defense) were named first-team All-SEC.
Superior talent, superior coaching and a very manageable conference schedule [Tennessee and LSU come to Tuscaloosa, leaving the Iron Bowl as the only legitimate road test] make the Tide a no-brainer pick to reach Atlanta for the fourth straight season.
Auburn (2nd in media polling with 1,329 points)
FFP: Disagree
If new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey and transfer quarterback Jarrett Stidham can breathe life back into a dormant passing attack, then Auburn is fully capable of winning 10 games this season. The running game (led by preseason All-SEC selections Kam Pettway and Kerryon Johnson) should be excellent again; a defense that held nine opponents to less than 20 points last season returns standout contributors like end Marlon Davidson, tackle Dontavius Russell, linebacker Tre’ Williams, safety Tray Matthews and corner Carlton Davis (all of whom received preseason All-Conference honors); and first-team All-SEC kicker Daniel Carlson is a game-changing weapon.
[Here comes the but.]
But…the back half of Auburn’s schedule this season is a beast—three straight road games in a four-week stretch at LSU, at Arkansas and at Texas A&M, followed by home games with preseason division favorites Georgia and Alabama. Smart money says the Tigers drop at least a couple of those games, and if one of those happens to be in Baton Rouge (where Auburn hasn’t won since 1999) then that could be the difference between finishing third in the West instead of second.
LSU (3rd in media polling with 1,262 points)
FFP: Disagree
Much like Auburn, LSU is banking on a new coordinator (Matt Canada, hired away from Pittsburgh in the off-season) to liven up the offense. Former Purdue transfer Danny Etling is nothing special at quarterback, but first-team preseason All-SEC tailback Derrius Guice (who rushed for a league-best 1,387 yards last season on just 183 carries) is all kinds of special. The defense could be, too, assuming a return to full health and productivity by dynamic edge rusher Arden Key, another first-team preseason All-Conference pick.
The Tigers’ conference road schedule (which includes trips to Florida, Tennessee and Alabama) is brutally tough, but a 3-2 league record away from home should be enough to secure second place in the West—provided they continue their home-field mastery of Auburn on October 14.
Arkansas (4th in media polling with 796 points)
FFP: Disagree
Austin Allen put up some big passing numbers last season, but tailback Rawleigh Williams III was the heart and soul of the Arkansas attack. Williams, who rushed for 1,360 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2016, announced his retirement from football in May after sustaining a second scary neck injury during spring drills. His departure is another big blow for an offense that must also replace four of its top five pass-catchers from a year ago.
Barring drastic improvement from a defense that gave up more yards per play (6.75), rushing touchdowns (39) and 40-yard pass plays (13) than any other unit in the league last year, it’s difficult to see Arkansas escaping the bottom three in the West—especially considering a demanding schedule that features ten games in ten weeks following a mid-September bye.
Texas A&M (5th in media polling with 722 points)
FFP: Disagree
The Aggies will open the season with a different starting quarterback for the eighth consecutive year, but they do boast two of the most explosive and dynamic game-breakers in the SEC in junior receiver/returner Christian Kirk and sophomore tailback Trayveon Williams.
Kirk, a first-team preseason All-SEC selection, has caught 80-plus balls in each of his first two seasons, totaling 1,937 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s also taken five punts to the house on just 27 career returns. Williams, meanwhile, rushed for more than 1,000 yards as a true freshman in 2016 despite only carrying the ball 156 times. Those two—along with veteran running back Keith Ford—will pose plenty of problems for SEC defenses.
Factor in a schedule that features only one conference game in an opponent’s home stadium—at Florida on October 14—prior to November 18, and we’ll take the Aggies to finish fourth in the West.
Mississippi State (6th in media polling with 633 points)
FFP: Agree
Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is back after putting up some monster rushing numbers in 2016, but how much help will he get from the rest of the offense? There are even more pressing questions about a defense that surrendered 33 touchdown passes in 2016, the most any SEC team had allowed in a single season in nine years. The Bulldogs are one of only three teams (along with Arkansas and Tennessee) in the SEC that did not have a single defensive player receive preseason All-Conference honors.
The conference schedule, which opens with a home game against LSU and then road trips to Georgia and Auburn, could put Mississippi State behind the 8-ball early.
Ole Miss (7th in media polling with 379 points)
FFP: Agree
Sophomore quarterback Shea Patterson could be special, and the Rebels are stocked with big, young receivers (A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Van Jefferson) on the outside. Pass-rushing end Marquis Haynes is a difference-maker on defense, but there just seem to be too many holes to fill for a program teetering on the brink of NCAA purgatory.
This probably isn’t a good year to draw Alabama, Auburn and LSU in the first half of the conference schedule. A bad start could bury a team already dealing with a self-imposed bowl ban. Ole Miss has more talent than your typical last-place team, but the off-field factors are hard to ignore.
